How far could royal mail shares fall
A question that's sure to spark some debate!
Royal Mail (RMG) shares have been under pressure in recent years due to various factors, including declining mail volumes, increased competition, and regulatory challenges. As a result, the shares have fallen significantly from their peak in 2013.
To estimate how far Royal Mail shares could fall, let's consider some potential scenarios:
- Conservative scenario: If Royal Mail's financial performance stabilizes, and the company is able to maintain its dividend payout, the shares could potentially fall by 10-20% over the next 12-18 months. This would put the shares at around 150-170p.
- Base case scenario: If Royal Mail's financial performance continues to decline, and the company faces increased competition and regulatory challenges, the shares could potentially fall by 20-30% over the next 12-18 months. This would put the shares at around 120-140p.
- Bear case scenario: If Royal Mail's financial performance deteriorates significantly, and the company faces major disruptions to its business model, the shares could potentially fall by 30-50% or more over the next 12-18 months. This would put the shares at around 80-120p.
- Extreme bear case scenario: If Royal Mail's business model is severely disrupted, and the company is unable to adapt to changing market conditions, the shares could potentially fall by 50-75% or more over the next 12-18 months. This would put the shares at around 40-60p.
Please note that these estimates are highly speculative and based on various assumptions about the company's future performance. The actual decline in Royal Mail shares could be significantly different from these estimates.
It's also important to remember that the value of Royal Mail shares can fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably, and investors should always do their own research and consider their own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.